Mailbag on First Majestic (AG) (FR.to)

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Title : Mailbag on First Majestic (AG) (FR.to)
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Mailbag on First Majestic (AG) (FR.to)

Mailbag of the day is from Reader E, who likes playing with numbers as much as I do. He's quick to point out that this is the most basic of calculations and does not include items such as tax, investments, exploration etc. Also, he's being very generous to FR by leaving the production un-discounted, at NPV-5% it wouldn't even make U$600m. But as a ballpark, it does indeed shine a light on the prices people are willing to pay to have something with the word 'silver' in its corporate title.

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In regards to first majestic (AG), I actually made a funny calculation that exposes the craziness:

1) Let's take all of the measured and indicated silver resources of the company (reserves included of course), from their own website (gold is included in AISC already so we ignore).
2) Now, let's assume that their AISC numbers (which include the gold) really reflect the cost of taking those ounces of the ground, 
3) and let's just assume that they somehow succeed in producing all of their silver and gold in just one day and sell it immediately. 

the value we get:
M&I silver ounces: 150M 
AISC: $10/oz

So at a silver price of $17/oz, and AISC of $10/oz.... we get a value of 150,000,000 ounces X $7 = $1.05B  (remember, I'm not using NPV5 here, this is just cash flow, for a company that's traded for $2B).


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