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What else goes on in The IKN Weekly

We try hard to keep your portfolio away from negative turns of event in LatAm politics. For example, please consider LADB's headline story today:

Bolivian demonstrators, many indigenous supporters of the MAS party, began to dismantle over a hundred roadblocks set up around the country in protest of repeated electoral delays by the interim government. In response to the protests, Bolivian lawmakers passed a law yesterday preventing further postponement of the presidential election redo, currently scheduled for Oct. 18. Authorities had pushed forward the vote, ostensibly due to coronavirus concerns, but observers suspect the interim government is angling to prevent MAS party candidate Luis Arce from winning, reports AFP.

Bolivia was already politically unstable, now the pandemic is pushing into chaos, reports the Economist, which notes that the Añez government's lack of credibility means all its measures are viewed skeptically.

The blockades have further complicated supplies for the country's overloaded hospitals, reports the Associated Press.

Please also consider the advice given to subscribers of The IKN Weekly on July 26th 2020 regarding the quickly deteriorating situation in Bolivia:

Bolivia is a tinderbox

“A week is a long time in politics.”

Harold Wilson, British Prime Minister, 1964

If you want to place bets on which LatAm region may see serious social protests and violent upheaval in our newly strained Covid-19 world, it’s not a bad strategy to favour places that have seen plenty of social protests and violent upheaval. In the segment this time last week entitled “Bolivia: The MAS party of Evo Morales on course to regain power”, we noted that the oft-delayed Presidential election had finally been given a date, September 6^th. We also noted that MAS Party candidate Luis Arce, chosen to take the place of ousted ex-President Evo Morales, was in a clear lead in the most recent polls and though we cannot consider him a lock as yet, chances were that Bolivia returned to Socialism with a capital S on September 7^th.

To say things have changed since IKN582 is an understatement. Among other gems, Bolivia’s Electoral Tribunal (TSE) has interceded and blocked the election from taking place on September 6^th, citing health concerns around Covid-19. It has re-set the election for October 18^th which is bad enough for the opposition parties, but the TSE has made this decision in a seemingly unilateral way and while insists it is acting inside the law and requires no Congressional oversight (11a), the opposition point out the government-leaning TSE could continue to play the same suspension card indefinitely. At the same time, a legal injunction has been made against Luis Arce, the MAS party candidate and favourite for next President, under a dubious clause in the new electoral law that prohibits candidates from talking about opinion polls outside of the official election campaign dates. As Arce made public comments on a poll that had him leading during the lockdown, government allies have moved to stop his candidacy and many fear the courts will act quickly in kangaroo style (12). If Arce were barred, the current bitter atmosphere in the country will get worse quickly.

As for the response from the MAS Party of Evo Morales so far, perhaps “controlled fury” sums it up. As well as sending legal injunctions and Constitutional Court cases flying in all directions, they want the election as soon as possible because they know who wins it if so. Yesterday Saturday Arce told Argentina’s left-leaning newspaper Pagina 12  (translated) “The coup d’etat was made in the name of democracy, but eight months have gone by and Bolivia is without any sort of democracy” (13). You might not like his politics, but he does have a point and as they have also constantly accused “interim” President Añez from dragging her heels in her temporary office, last week was red rags ton an already angry bull. Violent rhetoric may change into real violent fury as from this week as several protest marches are now due to happen through La Paz, first among those is a big one by the powerful Evo stalwart COB mining union set for Tuesday (14). These are the merry funsters who like setting off dynamite sticks in city streets to announce their arrival (don’t get in the way, but it does make for great TV). All this while Covid-19 runs straight through the Presidential Palace, with interim President Jeanine Añez infected and now the Presidential Spokesperson (a high ranking position in South American governments) taken to ICU this weekend due to complications arising from his infection.

Bottom line: Last week these pages advised you to lower your Bolivia exposure, if applicable. This weekend it’s more a case of me wild mouth Otto standing on a soap box and screaming at you to steer a mile clear of Bolivia exposure in your portfolio. In the midst of a rapid rise in Covid-19 infections in the country (La Paz is now a pandemic focal point with 66,000 confirmed cases as per Friday, a number which severely undercounts reality) things are almost certainly about to get worse politically and socially. No predictions on exactly how bad because anything could happen, from a quick calming of nerves on a government/TSE climb-down to full-scale bloody riots in La Paz (and any stop between the two extremes). However, you do not need the latent risk of a Black Swan event in your portfolio when there are so many other ways to score sizeable winning trades in less risky jurisdictions. “Avoid Bolivia” is now a no-brainer call.

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